Michigan State fell to Purdue last Saturday and slide four positions in the College Football Playoff Rankings to No. 7. Michigan State has played quite a few games with a “bend but don’t break” mentality when it comes to their defense, however, Purdue University took advantage of the defensive weakness handing the Spartans their first loss of the season. If Mel Tucker and the Spartans pass defense can’t get things figured out over their final three games this season it will cost them both a playoff berth or a Rose Bowl berth.
Through their first nine games the Spartan defense surrenders 443.4 yards per game, good for 5.3 yards per play. The defense is on the field, on average, 83.5 players per game while the offense only gets 65 plays per game. Unfortunately, the Spartans can’t seem to get off the field on both 3rd and 4th downs; allowing 70 of 166 (42.2%) conversions on 3rd down and 18 of 27 (66.7%) on 4th down. The lack of pressure on the opposing quarterback this season (only 14 sacks) likely plays a heavy hand in why these conversion rates are so bad. The Red Zone defense has allowed scores on 34 of 39 trips (87.1%), however, this is where the “bend but don’t break” comes in to play…they’ve allowed only 17 touchdowns (43.5%).
Below are the current Big 10 Defensive Rankings:
MSU Big 10 Defensive Rankings
As you can see, most of the defense is a cellar dweller. The last two weeks against Michigan and Purdue have done nothing to help these numbers either. Combined Cade McNamara (Mich) and Aidan O’Connell (Purdue) threw for 919 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Spartans defense: good for 13.5 yds/completion. The 536 yards given up to O’Connell was the 2nd most in program history. Not only did these two offenses shred the Spartans through the air, but they also converted 19 of 35 3rd down attempts. After surrendering 11 of 18 to the Boilermakers Xavier Henderson and Mel Tucker spoke with the media:
“Story of the season, isn’t it? We’ve just got to be better with our technique, I think is what it is. Maybe that’s something we need to work on a little bit more in practice. We even got the defense together, like some extra time in the afternoon and watch third down, but we still weren’t able to get off. So, it’s got to be fixed.” – Xavier Henderson, MSU Safety
“That’s not just this week. We’ve had issues getting off the field before on third down.” – Mel Tucker, MSU Head Coach
The Spartan defense has been burned regularly this season. They just can’t seem to get off the field in key situations and end up allowing their opponent to march down the field and get a score of some sort or flip field position. After the Purdue game, Tucker was also quoted as saying:
“We have to tighten some things up, so that’s what we’re going to work on, obviously. We gave up too many explosive [plays] and we were not good in the screen game as well.”
He went on to say:
“We’re gonna own it, give those guys credit where credit is due. They beat us, and we need to execute better, at a higher level…There’s nothing more to it.”
There were many people that felt the Purdue game was a trap game for the Spartans last week. The Boilermakers, or “Spoilermakers,” have a history of beating Top-5 programs: No. 5 Michigan State (1999), No. 2 Ohio State (2018) and No. 2 Iowa (2021).
David Bell scores against the MSU Secondary
If the pass defense continues to play as it has thus far it will end up costing this Spartans team either a Playoff Berth or Rose Bowl Berth. Unfortunately, to date, the Spartans have not been able to handle the screen game or quick passes while in soft coverage. The secondary has been burned time and time again all while not being able to execute tackles. Unfortunately, the Spartans have sustained a couple of key injuries on the defensive side of the ball and their roster does not have enough depth to make up for what is lost.
The Spartans control their own destiny over these final three weeks of the season. The pass defense will need to tighten up quickly if they want to make a final push in the Playoff Rankings. The Spartans final three opponents Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State are all Top-4 Big 10 passing offense. The rank 3rd (316.1 yds/g), 1st (352.8 yds/g) and 4th (277.7 yds/g), respectively.
So, what do you think Spartans fans, what will the final record on the season be? Will they get to 10-2 and find themselves in the Rose Bowl? Will they win out and sit at 11-1 and force the Committee to put them in the Playoff?