Are Casey Mize's Days in Detroit Over?

As the 2024 season came to a close, it seems the future doesn’t look bright for Casey Mize in Detroit. Skipping him in the rotation for two crucial series - first in Baltimore and then against Tampa Bay - while the Tigers were vying for a playoff berth raises questions about the team’s faith in their former No. 1 overall pick. Relegated to bullpen duties, Mize’s role significantly diminished towards the end of the season.

A.J. Hinch’s decision to pitch Mize in game 162 alongside Kenta Maeda and Keider Montero was a clear sign of the Tigers making final roster decisions for the Wild Card series. Though Mize made the Wild Card roster, he wasn’t used during the two-game sweep of the Houston Astros. Instead, Jackson Jobe, with only four innings of Major League experience, was chosen move Mize in a tight spot in Game 2. For the ALDS, Mize was left off of the roster, with his spot going to an inconsistent Keider Montero.

Mize’s extensive injury history is a significant concern. Over the past three seasons, he spent considerable time on the 60-day IL, missing substantial portions of 2022 and 2024 and the entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery and back surgery. His career numbers reflect these struggles: with one full season (30+ starts) in 2021, his career record stands at 9-19, with a 4.39 ERA, 7.0/K/9, and 2.9 BB.9.

His pitch value in 2024 was less than impressive. Four of his five pitches recorded a negative run value, with hitters managing a .260 or better average against each pitch. Despite these struggles, there have been positives in his career, like his improved fastball velocity and his dominant slider and splitter from 2021.

Tension between Mize and the Tigers is palpable. Disputes over contract terms and disagreements over his transfer to the 60-day IL during the 2024 season highlight a strained relationship.

“I want to play. I feel like I’ll be ready prior to that, to be honest. That missed time is definitely frustrating for a team that I feel like needs me.” - Casey Mize on his transfer to the 60-day IL

The three most likely possibilities for Mize and the Tigers headed into the 2025 season are:

  1. Exercise the $3.1m option and have Mize compete for a 2025 rotation spot during Spring Training

  2. Not exercise the option and return to arbitration with Mize. This seems the most likely scenario (in my opinion), as Scott Harris emphasized the need for adjustments, particularly with his secondary pitches during his end of season press conference

  3. Non-tender Mize and look elsewhere for starting pitching. As Harris stated, “We gotta add more pitching this offseason.”

So, Tigers fans, what do you think will happen with Casey Mize as we head into the 2025 season?