Sabermetrics

Top-5 Offseason Questions

As the World Series continues and the offseason looms on the horizon the Detroit Tigers have a lot of questions marks moving forward. Here are my Top-5 Questions for the Detroit Tigers and their offseason headed into this offseason before the start of Spring Training 2023.

Who will be hired as General Manager?

Scott Harris; President of Baseball Operations

The Tigers have slowly gutted the front office since the hiring of Scott Harris as the new President of Baseball Operations. The most recent addition to the front office was Rob Metzler as the new VP and Assistant GM, a steal from the Rays organization. One of the biggest front office vacancies is the General Managers position. Recently, we have received news that the Detroit Tigers still intend to hire a new General Manager but have yet to start the process or hold interviews. There have been few rumors as to who this hire will be and the Tigers have played things close to the vest. Is it possible Harris may try to steal yet another piece from the Rays front office in Carlos Rodriguez? What about going after someone from organizations like the Braves? Are there any specific candidates you’d like to see interviewed for the position?

How do you replace Skubal, Mize and possible Manning in the rotation?

Tarik Skubal; LHP Detroit Tigers

Both Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize underwent season ending surgeries in 2022 and are likely out at least half of the 2023 season, if not the entire season. Starter Matt Manning was also shut down for a majority of the 2022 season as well and there has not been much of an update in regards to the progress of his recovery. With Spencer Turnbull set to return in 2023 and the assumption that Eduardo Rodriguez will be available for the entire season that still leaves at least 2, if not 3, rotation positions open for the start of 2023. Do you Tigers continue to role with the in-house options they have; Garrett Hill, Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo, and Joey Wentz? Or do they go out and make a couple short-term deals with Free Agent pitchers like Matthew Boyd, Johnny Cueto or Jake Odorizzi? Or could they go for a long-term deal or two and go after pitchers like Carlos Rodon (if he doesn’t pick up his Player Option), Aaron Nola (if his Club Option is not picked up), or Sean Manaea?

Does Javier Baez retain the shortstop position, or do you slide him over to second base?

Javier Baez; SS Detroit Tigers

We all know that Javy had a rough go during the 2022 season, one of the worst, if not the worst, seasons of his career. He committed, an MLB worst, 26 errors at the shortstop position; leading to a career low -5 DRS on the season. He also struggled at the plate, swinging at a career high 48.7% of pitches outside of the strike zone, per FanGraphs. Despite a season that was mostly a struggle at the plate, Javy was able to put together a strong month of September (.293/.322/.509; 30 games) as well as ended the season leading the team in both homeruns (17) and RBI (67). There are a few shortstops of interest who are hitting Free Agency after the conclusion of the World Series. Those players would be Carlos Correa (already Opted-Out), Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and Tim Anderson (pending a Club Option). Is it possible that the Detroit Tigers front office takes a swing at signing one of these Free Agents to a hefty deal and slide Baez over to second base for the remainder of his contract in Detroit? Baez has logged a total of 2141.2 innings at second base in his career with a +16 DRS, so it’s not as though the position would be foreign to him, and he has made it clear he enjoys playing up the middle.

Who is your number 1 backstop on the depth chart?

Eric Haase; C Detroit Tigers

There are rumors that Tucker Barnhart will not be returning to the Tigers roster for the 2023 season, leaving Eric Haase and Michael Papierski as the catchers on the active roster pending a healthy return of Jake Rogers. We all know that Haase bring a relatively good bat to the plate. He provides a nice infusion of power (14 homeruns) with the ability to drive runs in in key situation. Haase did see improvements on the offensive side with his K% dropping to 27.6% from 31.2% as well as a 23 point jump in average (.251 in 2022) and, lastly, a bump in OBP from .286 (2021) to .305 (2022). Despite these offensive improvements, he also some declines in HardHit% from 47.9% to 42.2% and Barrel% from 13.7% to 8.7%. All these changes came with only a difference of 172 pitches seen from 2021 to 2022. Defensively Haase has some great attributes (pop time being in the top 30% of the league as well as a well above average career caught steeling percentage of 40%), however, he also leaves a lot to be desired defensively as well. During the 2022 season he was near the bottom of the league in framing, committed 7 errors (6 throwing) while behind the plate and provided a -9 DRS (-13 career). Jake Rogers is still a giant question mark as to what he will be at the Major League level, especially because he has only logged 73 games and provided a .182 batting average at the plate. There are plenty of solid attributes in regards to his defense, but he has yet to really show who he is because of the Tommy John surgery. Does Detroit ride out the 2023 season with Haase and Rogers as their duo behind the dish or do they look to add to the roster during the off season?  Let’s also not forget Dillon Dingler is down in Double-A Erie. Is it possible he blows everyone’s mind during Spring Training and works his way onto the Opening Day roster, especially with the health and capabilities of Rogers still being a question mark? While he wasn’t a rockstar at the plate, Dingler still has many positive attributes and could become part of the conversation.

Do you make a big splash in free agency, or do you make smaller deals in preparation for a big splash in 2024?

Jonathan Schoop; 2B Detroit Tigers

There have been recent reports that relief pitcher Andrew Chafin will decline his player option and second baseman Jonathan Schoop will do the opposite and exercise his option for the 2023 season. These are only two small aspects of this roster heading into the upcoming season, however, how does this affect what Harris and his, eventual, new General Manager do in regards to the construction of said roster. Will the new front office look to only add a few small pieces for 2023 as a means of allowing themselves a full season to evaluate the current talent of this organization and see what players they would like to remain within the system and at the Major League level and which they would like to move on from? Or, will Harris and the front office make a big splash in Free Agency and start to build the team they believe can begin to compete for a playoff berth in just a season or two? Some of the key free agents hitting the market at the conclusion of the World Series are: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Aaron Judge, Wilson Contreras, Carlos Rodon, Andrew Benintendi and many more.