Before the 2021 season began no one, analysts and fans alike, thought the Detroit Tigers would be anywhere other than the bottom of the American League Central and near the top of the draft order at the conclusion of the season. Come October 3rd, the Tigers found themselves ending the season with a 77-85 overall record, good for third place in the division. It is my belief that manager AJ Hinch should get receive a considerable amount of consideration when it comes to the Manager of the Year award.
Before Opening Day, the Detroit Tigers were given an over/under wins total ranging anywhere from 63 to upwards of 69.5 depending on what betting app or casino/sports book you were looking at. Due to this near 6-win swing, let’s meet in the middle and say they had an over/under of 65. The 77-win mark puts them 12 games over expectations. While the Manager of the Year award typically, if not always, goes to a manager who led his team to an above .500 season, this 12-game jump in expected win total is huge; Hinch was able to bring this abysmal Detroit Tigers team from the bottom of the division to competing for a 2nd place finish in the AL Central with just 1 week left in the regular season.
The Tiger’s starting rotation was hit with 2 major injuries and a 3rd that threw a wrench into things as well. Detroit lost both Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull early in the season, both were expected to be major pieces in rotation. Julio Teheran was also lost for the season, however, he made just one start before going down to a shoulder injury. Add the late season inning and pitch count limits of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, Hinch was able to piece together a starting staff with the additions of Wily Peralta, Tyler Alexander and Matt Manning and keep this team competitive until the end.
Hinch’s hiring of Chris Fetter is yet another reason he should be considered for the award. Both Mize and Skubal struggled early in the season with slight command issues, and both righted the ship quickly with Fetter’s tutelage. Fetter also worked closely with Kyle Funkhouser and Alex Lange turning them into formidable bullpen arms allowing Hinch to lean on both down the stretch.
No one will forget the horrific 8-19 April, however, Hinch then led the team to 3 consecutive .500+ months and fourth in September. The Tigers also finished with a 42-39 record at Comerica Park, the first time since 2016 (45-35) that the team had a .500 or better record at home. The team also posted an 11-9 interleague record, 23-23 record in 1-run games, and a 12-8 record in extra innings; Hinch has begun a culture shift fostering a winning culture and grinding out games mentality.
One of the most important things, to me at least, was the record against .500 or better teams. The Tigers posted a record of 39-36 (.520) against such teams including a record of 28-25 against playoff teams.
Tigers record vs. .500+ teams in 2021
While it may be unconventional for a below .500 manager to win the Manager of the Year award, AJ Hinch deserves serious consideration when it comes to voting. In one season he’s already started a major reform in culture, he’s found ways to win with a depleted roster with a bottom third payroll and he got more out of players than anyone could have expected. Imagine what he will be able to do if Chris Ilitch and Al Avila go out and spend some money on free agents this off season.