Just one day after the Chicago White Sox hired Tony La Russa to be their next manager the Detroit Tigers announced the hiring on AJ Hinch as the ballclub’s 39th manager. With the COVID-19 season having come to an end I have started to look to the future of the upcoming 2021 season, hopeful we will be able to see an entire 162 game season. I have looked through the free agent market and the current 40-man roster of the Tigers and have made my predictions of who will be the starting infield for the 2021 season.
Catcher:
Austin Romine: During the 2020 season Romine slashed .238/.259/.323, a rather unimpressive overall batting average but that we cannot only look at the number. Romine had an impressive month of August hitting at a .283 clip while driving in 11 runs and collecting 4 extra base hits, driving his batting average to its highest point on the season of .316. Despite the overall .238 average on the season, Romine hit .306/.316/.389 (11 for 36) with runners in scoring position on the season while driving in 14 and slapping 3 doubles. On top of his clutch batting performances Romine seemed to handle the pitching staff incredibly well, which bodes well for the future of the young arms that we will likely see in 2021. I wouldn’t mind bringing Romine back on a short term 1-2 year deal at $4 million a year.
JT Realmuto: Realmuto is a freak of nature behind the plate; he possesses speed, power, a canon of an arm and the glove of a wizard. During the 60-game sprint of 2020 he slashed .266/.349/.491 and is a career .278 hitter in 2,699 career at-bats. With RISP Realmuto is a career .262 hitter and hits at a .240 clip with 2-out and RISP. Between the 2017-2019 seasons he amassed a WAR of 15.0 highest amongst all qualified catchers. In the Tigers lineup Realmuto would slot nicely somewhere between 5-7 bolstering the middle of the lineup. The main problem that comes with signing JT behind the plate would be the length and dollar amount of the contract. Realmuto IS NOT a short-term solution, rather, he would be the long-term solution pushing players like Greiner or Rogers into a back-up role allowing players like 2020 2nd round pick Dillon Dingler (currently the No. 8 Prospect in the organization) time to develop in the minors. I’d be open to bringing Realmuto, 30, in on a 5-year $100 million contract. But will this be enough to catch the No. 3 ranked Free Agent according to USA Today’s Gabe Lacques.
First Base:
Jeimer Candelario: This is probably the most controversial position placement I have decided on for the 2021 infield. Candyman has seen a significant improvement at the plate from 2018 to 2020:
Candelario Batting Average Improvement by season. Stats courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com
Candelario seemed to make the necessary tweaks and improvements with his swing to become a successful MLB hitter. We all saw the hitter he could be when the Tigers first acquired him from the Chicago Cubs and gave him his immediate call-up but were sorely disappointed in 2018 and 2019 with his overall performance. When CJ Cron hit the Injured List on August 11th Candelario was moved over to first base and it seemed to suit him well. During his time at third base during the 2020 season Candy slashed .250/.308/.417 at the plate in comparison to his .311/.386/.527 at the plate while playing first base. After a very alarming 0 for 17 start to the season (striking out 9 times) Candelario smashed the ball in August hitting at a .356 clip while collecting 12 extra base hits and 15 RBI and this only carried over into September. According to Baseball Savant, Candelario’s ability to hit fastballs and offspeed pitches increased dramatically from 2019 to 2020. His average against fastballs jumped from .212 to .356 a 144-point jump and against offspeed from .222 to .303 an 81-point jump. The one hole in his swing remains breaking pitches; hitting only .167 in 2020. While he may not be a natural first baseman, if the right amount of work is put into him, he could become an everyday player at first. With Hall of Famer Alan Trammell on the staff to help these young players with their infield capabilities I have no doubt that he could find the correct footwork. Jeimer committed only 3 errors in 319 chances (.991 fielding percentage) at first during the 2020 season and there was noticeable improvement in his footwork as the season progressed. Candelario does not become a Free Agent until the 2024 season, so he can remain relatively cost-effective player in relation to payroll.
Second Base:
Jonathan Schoop: Before going on the Injured List in the 2020 season, I would argue that Schoop was the Tigers best bat in the lineup and a solid defensive player to boot. Before his injury Schoop had played in 44 game with Detroit and was arguably their best hitter of the season. He ended the season hitting .278/.324/.475 with 8 homeruns, 6 extra base hits and 23 RBI. Despite having missed 14 games, Schoop finished 2nd on the team in homeruns behind Miguel Cabrera and it is my belief that he likely would have finished first had he not been on IL; he was also 4th on the team in RBI and again likely would have been No. 1 or No. 2 had he played the full season. By all accounts he fit in well in the clubhouse and was well liked by both the coaching staff and his fellow teammates. I would not hesitate to sign him to a 2-year $16 million deal after having brough him in on a 1-year $6.1 million deal for the 2020 season. He would solidify the second base position over the two year timeframe giving the organization time to develop any one of a number of prospects to take over in the future; Isaac Paredes, Zack Short, Kody Clemens or Sergio Alcantara.
Third Base:
Jake Lamb: Lamb would be a low risk “reclamation project” for the Detroit Tigers organization. While shoulder injuries hindered his 2018 and 2019 campaigns, however, he bounced back in the COVID-19 shorted 2020 season. In 49 at bats with the Oakland Athletics he hit .267/.327/.556 showing the potential to get back to his old self at the plate. Lamb was the everyday third baseman for the Arizona Diamondbacks for the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Over the course of those two seasons he clobbered 59 homeruns, 29 in 2015 and 30 in 2016, while raking in 196 RBIs, 91 and 105, respectively. Lamb could be a bargain on a 1-year $1 million make-good contract as a stopgap while No. 1 Overall Pick Spencer Torkelson develops in the minor leagues; Tork currently has an ETA of 2022 per the Tigers website. If it happens that Tork is not ready for the 2022 season and Lamb had a good showing he could be brought back on another 1-year deal for 2022.
DJ LeMahieu: A deal with LeMahieu would have to be long-term and would likely be the most expensive contract the Tigers would sign in the offseason. The Yankees signed DJ to a 2-year $24 million contract, and he was arguably their best hitter over the course of those two seasons. LeMahieu is a 3-time All Star, 3-time Gold Glove Winner and finished 4th in the MVP voting in 2019 and won a Silver Slugger in 2019 as well. DJ is a career .305/.357/.430 hitter and has 5 seasons of .300 or better under his belt. I have slotted DJ over at third base due to the extension of Jonathan Schoop I laid out earlier. While he has more career games played over at second base, LeMahieu has the ability to play all over the infield and the Tigers could slot him in in any number of places. In 98 career games at the hot corner hes hit .298/.350/.488. Not only does he have the ability to hit for average over the course of a regular season, DJ is also clutch with RISP hitting .307 with 372 RBI in his career. In signing with Detroit LeMahieu would be coming full circle having played at Brother Rice High School and being drafted by the Detroit Tigers in the 41st round of the 2007 Draft; unfortunately for Detroit he chose to play in college and did not sign with the team. I could see Detroit extending an offer of 4-years $100 million. Some may ask, what if Tork is ready for 2022 but LeMahieu is the starting third baseman? Well, Detroit could always shift DJ over to second or first if either Schoop or Candelario did not pan out in 2021.
Shortstop:
Willi Castro: With his 2020 Rookie Campaign under his belt, Castro has proved he can be an everyday shortstop at the Major League level. The Detroit Tigers used Castro at both third base and shortstop during the shortened 2020 season. On top of being platooned at these two positions the organization also asked Castro to take outfielding lessons. With all of this going on his still finished the season with a slash line of .349/.381/.550. When asked about a conversation he had had with Manager Ron Gardenhire, Castro stated “He though I was going to be upset because he told me I was going to play outfield a little bit. Not at all. I told him I’ll play anywhere” further proving the dedication Willi has for his game. Former pitching coach Joe Vavra let the Detroit Free Press know
There’s a lot of guys that know they can’t hit a curveball, know they have trouble with a slider or a changeup. He doesn’t. He’s got 100% accountability. He really trusts his natural ability to hit any pitch. If he’s looking for it, and it’s in the zone, he’s going to put a pretty good swing on it. He’s got good balance. He can use the whole field.
With Vavra showing such praise, Castro’s season at the plate was not a fluke. To further demonstrate his hitting ability, we can look at his Baseball Savant profile.
Willi Castro’s batting average against pitch type. Statistics courtesy of www.baseballsavant.mlb.com
When you break down Castro’s came, the one aspect that seems to be the issue is his fielding abilities. In 107 chances he committed 4 errors, ending the season with a .963 fielding percentage. Fortunately, with Hall of Fame Shortstop Alan Trammell working with the organization Castro will have one of the best teachers he could ask for.
Unfortunately, Willi did not receive the Rookie of the Year hype he should have. Before the season even ended it seemed as though the ROY had dwindled itself down to a 2-man race between the Seattle Mariners’ Kyle Lewis and Chicago White Sox Luis Robert. Castro outhit both finalists, albeit it in fewer games, it is likely that he would have outhit them if he had a full season’s worth of stats.
ROY Stat Comparison. Stats courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com
The only area Castro did not live up to his competitors was Fielding Percentage, however, I believe if he had a full season’s chances and more time to get his feet under him at the positions he played his percentage would be .975 or higher. Castro is under team control until 2026 when he becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent.
Designated Hitter:
Miguel Cabrera: Miggy struggled for nearly the first half of the shorted 2020 season; 25 games to be more precise. Through those first 25 Cabrera was slashing .176/.269/.319 with 4 homeruns and 11 RBI but was striking out a nearly 25% with 23 strikeouts over his first 91 at-bats. Between August 23rd and September 6th, he went on a 13-game hit streak, during which he collected 20 hits bring his season batting average up to .255. While Miggy has still been productive, to an extent, over the last four seasons, he has not finished in the Top-10 in MVP voting, been an All Star or earned a Silver Slugger since the 2016 season. Despite relative production Miguel Cabrera’s contract, in my opinion, is a hinderance on this ballclub essentially leaving us stuck with him at Designated Hitter. Because of Mr. I’s loyalty to his players and his liking to sign players to contracts for past accomplishments rather than what lies ahead, the Detroit Tigers are on the hook for $30+ million a year through 2025; Cabrera’s age 42 season. Unfortunately, I don’t think we can necessarily bring a guy like CJ Cron back to platoon at DH/1B with Jeimer Candelario because the Tigers are not going to be able to get themselves out of underneath this massive contract until it ends. I highly doubt any team in the league is going to take on an aging star with declining numbers at $30 million.
Honorable Mentions:
CJ Cron: If the team is able to bring him back, I would venture to guess he will play a platoon role between 1B/DH.
Niko Goodrum: While I do not think that Niko will be off the team, I do believe that he has lost his starting role and will be slotted into the Super Utility role, similar to Don Kelly.
Isaac Paredes: Sitting behind a player like Jonathan Schoop will allow Paredes to learn the game from a true veteran. I see him as the future at second base, but in 2021 he may play back-up to several of the infield positions.
As you can see, there are a couple positions that I have listed out a couple of players that could be in the Tigers infield for the 2021 season. When it comes to those positions one of the players is a short-term solution and the other is a long-term solution. As Tigers fans we really do not have any idea as to when ownership and management intend to open the pocket books and attempt to contend again, thus, I’ve selected short-term (cheaper) options and long-term (more expensive) options for the infield.
Short-Term Infield:
C: Austin Romine
1B: Jeimer Candelario
2B: Jonathan Schoop
3B: Jake Lamb
SS: Willi Castro
DH: Miguel Cabrera
Long-Term Infield:
C: JT Realmuto
1B: Jeimer Candelario
2B: Isaac Paredes (Honorable Mention above)
3B: DJ LeMahieu
SS: Willi Castro
DH: Miguel Cabrera
Sources:
Beyondtheboxscore.com. (2020, August 21). J.T. Realmuto will reset the free agent catching market. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2045519099537/jt-realmuto-will-reset-the-free-agent-catching-market
Kaufman, C. (2020, October 01). Jeimer Candelario: A Season Recap. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://www.si.com/mlb/tigers/news/jeimer-candelario-a-season-recap
Kotila, T. (2020, October 05). Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario turns heads with 2020 performance. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://detroitjockcity.com/2020/10/05/detroit-tigers-jeimer-candelario-impressive-2020/
Kotila, T. (2020, September 25). Detroit Tigers: Victor Reyes settling into outfield during 2020 season. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://detroitjockcity.com/2020/09/25/detroit-tigers-victor-reyes-2020-success/
McCosky, C. (2020, September 18). Tigers' Willi Castro inserts himself into Rookie of the Year chatter. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2020/09/17/detroit-tigers-willi-castro-inserts-himself-into-rookie-year-chatter/3480451001/
Petzold, E. (2020, September 20). Detroit Tigers' Willi Castro 'not a fluke.' Here's why he can be the answer at shortstop. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2020/09/20/detroit-tigers-willi-castro-shortstop-ron-gardenhire/5813938002/
Tallman, M. (2020, November 03). Detroit Tigers: Analyzing the Way Too Early Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts. Retrieved November 11, 2020, from https://motorcitybengals.com/2020/11/03/detroit-tigers-analyzing-fantasy-baseball-mock-drafts/
**Some Statistics courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com
**Some Statistics courtesy of www.baseballsavant.mlb.com
**Some Biographical information courtesy of www.wikipedia.com