Rebuild

Scott Harris Is Not To Blame For This Mess

The Detroit Tigers have faced their share of challenges in recent seasons, and much of the blame has been directed at President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris. While this is easy to do, because he is the man currently at the helm, it’s not the correct judgement. A closer look reveals that Scott Harris and his front office inherited a difficult situation and has been working tirelessly to rebuild the franchise from the ground up. Let’s examine some key points that have led up to this point:

Al Avila’s Failed Trades: A Closer Look

J.D. Martinez to Arizona: The Unofficial Start to the Rebuild

  • The Return: Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, Jose King

    • Dawel Lugo: Lugo has not taken an MLB at-bat since 2020 and is currently playing in the Mexican League.

    • Sergio Alcantara: Back in the Arizona Diamondbacks system, Alcantara has a career slash line of .200/.281/.343 with a 72 OPS+.

    • Jose King: Currently a free agent, King last played for Toledo in 2022.

Justin Verlander to Houston

  • The Return: Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, Jake Rogers

    • Franklin Perez: Released by the Tigers, Perez never made it beyond Low-A ball due to a number of health/injury issues.

    • Daz Cameron: With strong minor league numbers this season, Cameron finally managed to crack that horrendous major league roster; he’s currently slashing .238/.238/.429. During his time with Detroit he squandered his opportunities at the major league level.

    • Jake Rogers: Still with Detroit, Rogers faces challenges both offensively and defensively in 2024, however, his bat has look better in the month of May.

Ian kinsler to Los Angeles

  • The Return: Wilkel Hernandez, Troy Montgomery

    • Wilkel Hernandez: At 25, Hernandez remains in the Tigers’ farm system, however, he has yet to progress beyond Double-A Erie.

    • Troy Montgomery: Last played in 2019 and requested to be put on the Voluntarily Retired List.

Isaac Paredes to Tampa Bay

  • The Return: Austin Meadows

    • Austin Meadows: Unfortunately, Meadows suffered from crippling anxiety and other mental health issues, leading to his departure from the team.

Hindsight and lessons learnd

  • While many believe Detroit had won the trade for Meadows, unforeseen mental health challenges changed the outcome of the trade, landing it in the loss section.

  • Al Avila’s tendency to hold onto players for too long impacted trade returns. Waiting until the deadline often led to a diminished value.

  • Michael Fulmer serves as a prime example. Despite high demand, Avila’s refusal to trade him at his peak value resulted in missed opportunities.

    • Fulmer’s subsequent injuries and eventual trade for Sawyer Gipson-Long highlight the consequences of Avila’s stubbornness (the acquisition of Gipson-Long will be discussed in further detail later).

Al Avila’s Other Missed Acquisitions via Trade

While some of Al Avila’s more significant moves during his time as the Tigers’ General Manager were previously discussed above, there were also instances where certain acquisitions from lesser deals didn’t yield the desired results either. Let’s take a closer look at some of those missed opportunities:

Grayson Long (acquired in the Justin Upton Trade):

  • Long was part of the packaged received from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Justin Upton. Unfortunately, his performance in the Tigers’ system was, to put it nicely, underwhelming. He threw just 4 innings for the Double-A Erie Seawolves in 2017, posting an ERA of 13.50.

Elvin Rodriguez (acquired in the justin upton trade):

  • Rodriguez was another piece acquired in the Justin Upton trade. His time with the Tigers was marked by many struggles. Over his 29.2 innings, he posted a 10.62 ERA (37 ERA+) with a high walk rate (4.6 BB/9). Currently, Rodriguez holds a “released” status and is not on a current roster anywhere.

Logan Shore (Acquired in the Mike Fiers trade):

  • Shore joined the Tigers’ farm system as part of the Mike Fiers trade. Unfortunately, his performance for Triple-A Toledo didn’t live up to expectations. As a result, Shore is now a free agent.

Travis Demeritte (Acquired in the Shane Greene Trade):

  • Demeritte played in 66 games for the Detroit Tigers, accumulating 198 at-bats. His offensive production was disappointing, with a slash line of .217/.284/.323 and an OPS+ of 62. He struck out 77 times during his tenure. Demeritte is also a free agent, currently.

al Avila’s Missed Draft Picks: A Closer Look

During his tenure as the Detroit Tigers’ general manager, Al Avila oversaw seven draft classes from 2015 to 2022. Unfortunately, some of his first and second-round picks didn’t pan out as expected. Let’s dive into the player who either completely failed or are nearing bust status:

2015 Draft Class

  • Beau Burrows (First Round): Burrows struggled to make an impact. His career trajectory fell short of expectations.

  • Christin Stewart (First Round): Stewart, another first-round selection, faced challenges in translating his minor league success to the major league level.

2016 Draft Class

  • Matt Manning (First Round): Manning, despite his potential, has battled injuries and inconsistency. His performance at the major league level continues to be a work in progress. If he doesn’t find the necessary consistency to remain in the Tigers’ rotation, he could be labeled a bust.

2017 Draft Class

  • Reynaldo Rivera (Second Round): Rivera hasn’t made significant strides beyond A+ ball. His minor league numbers have been disappointing, at best.

2018 Draft Class

  • Casey Mize (First Round, First Overall); Mize, a first overall pick, has faced significant injury challenges and has been underwhelming when healthy. With only eight career wins six years after being drafted, his development hasn’t met expectations. His fastball velocity has increased, but other aspects of his game still need major improvements. He’s on the brink of bust status if he can’t turn things around in 2024.

2020 draft Class

  • Spencer Torkelson (First Round, First Overall): The top pick of the 2020 draft, Torkelson has struggled at the major league level. His career OPS of .683 and subpar defense raise many concerns. With is recent demotion to Triple-A Toledo, if he doesn’t improve by the time he reaches 1,500 career at-bats or the end of the 2024 season, he’ll reach bust status.

2021 Draft Clas

  • Izaac Pacheco (First Round): Pacheco, though still early in his professional career, hasn’t progressed beyond High-A West Michigan. His minor league performance has been disappointing, an he may slide off the Tigers’ Top-30 Prospects list after the conclusion of the 2024 season.

Giving Credit Where It’s Due: Al Avila’s Gems

Al Avila oversaw numerous trades and drafts during his tenure. While some of his trades and drafts were underwhelming, there are a handful of instances where he managed to acquire players who have made an impact for the Tigers. Let’s take a closer look at some of those key moves:

Impactful trades:

  • Reese Olson: Acquired it he Daniel Norris trade in 2021, Olson has shown promise and has contributed positively while in the rotation. Currently, Olson’s 2.48 ERA is good for 7th best in the American League.

  • Sawyer Gipson-Long: Mentioned earlier in relation to the “failed” Michael Fulmer trade, Gipson-Long’s performance has been noteworthy, to an extent. When healthy, he provides additional pitching depth to the 40-man roster.

Late-Round Gems

  • Will Vest (12th Round, 2017 Draft): Vest has shown quite a bit of promise. His contributions on the mound have been valuable to the team over the last several seasons.

  • Tarik Skubal (9th Round, 2018 Draft): Skubal, now the Tigers’ ace, was a steal in the 9th round. His impressive performances and American League best WHIP have solidified his role as Ace.

  • Kerry Carpenter (19th Round, 2019 Draft): Carpenter has quietly developed into a reliable player with a power bat. His contributions may not always make national headlines, but they matter to the success of the organization.

  • Beau Brieske (27th Round, 2019 Draft): Brieske has surpassed all expectations. His journey from late-round draft pick to Major League bullpen arm showcases one of Avila’s few draft gems.

  • Colt Keith (5th Round, 2020 Draft): Keith has shown promise throughout the minor leagues. As the 2024 Opening Day second baseman for the Tigers it’s important to keep an eye on his progress - he very well could be a key contributor to the future success of the franchise.

First-Round Standouts

  • Riley Greene (First Round, Fifth Overall, 2019 Draft): Greene has, at times, lived up to the expectations of being a 5th overall selection. His bat, showing more signs of power in 2024, as well as his diving plays in the outfield make him a potential cornerstone for the team moving forward.

  • Jackson Jobe (First Round, Third Overall, 2021 Draft): Jobe, with his 100+ MPH fastball, has enormous potential. He could be a game-changer in the near future.

  • Jace Jung (First Round, 12th Overall, 2022 Draft): Jung brings a lot of excitement to the game. His offensive prowess could elevate the teams performance in 2025 and beyond.

Al Avila’s notable bad signings

While Avila was able to make a few impactful moves, as we just discussed, during his time as the General Manager in Detroit, there were also several signings that did not pan out well for the organization. Let’s take a closer look at some of these unsuccessful signings:

Mike Aviles (2016)

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$2m

  • Stats: .210/.258/.269, 1 HR, 6 RBI over 68 games

  • Aviles was eventually traded to the Atlanta Braves before the trade deadline in 2016

Mike Pelfrey (2016-17)

  • Contract Details: 2yr/$16m

  • Stats: 24 games (22 starts), 4-10 record, 5.07 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 84 ERA+, 3.5 BB/9, 4.2 K/9 over 119 innings pitched.

  • Pelfrey was traded to the Chicago White Sox after just one season, Detroit had to absorb $7.46m of his contract.

Mark Lowe (2016-17)

  • Contract Details: 2yrs/$11m

  • Stats: 54 games, 7.11 ERA, 60 ERA+, 49.1 innings pitched, 3.8 BB/9.

  • Lowe was released in March 2017, the Tigers paid the remaining $5.5m owed to him.

Jodran Zimmermann (2016-20)

  • Contract Details: 5yr/$110m (arguable the worst contract signing of the Al Avila era)

  • Stats: 99 games (97 starts), 25-41 record, 5.63 ERA, 80 ERA+, multiple injuries with just 514.1 innings pitched.

  • Zimmermann’s performance fell far short of expectations, and injuries plagued his time in Detroit.

Javier Baez (2022-27)

  • Contract Details: 6yr/$140m

  • Stats: 327 games, .225/.265/.347, .612 OPS, 71 OPS+, somehow posting a 2.3 WAR in his Detroit tenure despite the horrendous offense.

  • Baez was Avila’s parting “gift” to Tigers fans before being fired from his General Manager position in 2022.

In hindsight, these signings highlight the challenges faced by any GM in evaluating player performance and predicting future success. While some moves may have paid off in some fashion, the majority of Avila’s moves left fans disappointed. Al Avila’s legacy with the Tigers includes numerous missteps, especially during the offseason prior to the start of the 2016 season.

Farm System Rankings Under Al Avila

Despite initial struggles, the Detroit Tigers’ farm system saw significant ranking swings under Al Avila. Let’s take a closer look a how the rankings changed from year to year:

  • 2015: The farm system was ranked 30th by Baseball Prospectus. This dead last ranking was influenced by both Al Avila and his predecessor, Dave Dombrowki.

  • 2016: The system saw a slight improvement, moving up to the 27th spot according to Baseball Prospectus.

  • 2017: Another small improvement, the system climbed to the 25th spot on many ranking lists.

  • 2018: A solid jump occurred, bringing the system to the 16th position in the league.

  • 2019: The efforts of Al Avila and his front office are starting to pay off at this time. The farm system surged to 6th according to MLB Pipeline.

  • 2020: The upward trend continues, the system reached the 5th spot per MLB Pipeline.

  • 2021: A remarkable achievement - Detroit’s farm system was ranked 2nd in the league.

  • 2022: An immediate fall off, the system fell back to the 22nd position in MLB Farm System rankings.

Al Avila’s impact

During the 2018-2020 drafts, Al Avila made significant strides in rebuilding the farm system he had inherited from Dave Domrbowski. Key prospects like Matt Manning (who had already been in the system since 2016), Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson emerged as top talents and found themselves on the MLB Pipeline Topp-100 Prospects list.

However, there was a limitation. Avila’s drafts tended to yield only one impactful player per draft, lacking depth beyond those few star prospects. As these players graduated to the big league ballclub, the system’s rankings immediately fell back to the bottom third of the league due to that lack of depth in his draft classes.

In summary, Al Avila’s tenure saw both highs and lows in relation to the farm system. While he successfully developed a handful of top-tier prospects, he faced many challenges in maintaining depth for the long-term success of the organization.

Scott Harris Trades: Assessing the Returns

As the Detroit Tigers’ President of Baseball Operations, Scott Harris has already made several trades during his tenure. Let’s break down some of the key deals and evaluate the players acquired in return:

Joe Jiminez to Atlanta

  • The Return: Jake Higginbotham and Justyn-Henry Malloy

    • Jake Higginbotham: Currently with Double-A Erie, Higginbotham boasts a 2-0 record with a 2.13 ERA, and 26 strikeouts over 25.1 innings pitched. He could potentially become a bullpen asset during September call-ups.

    • Justyn-Henry Malloy: Ranked the No. 6 Prospect in the Tigers system, malloy impresses with his plate discipline. Despite defensive limitations, his .883 OPS and transition to the outfield make him a potential contributor in the Tigers’ lineup beyond 2025. He will see his first major league at bats this week, having been promoted to the major leagues after Torkelson was optioned to Toledo.

Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia

  • The Return: Hao-Yu Lee

    • Hao-Yu Lee: Currently in Erie and ranked as the No. 13 prospect, Lee demonstrates solid bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. With 22 walks and a .351 OBP over 47 games, he’s one to keep an eye on.

Blake Halub to Milwaukee

  • The Return: Mark Canha

    • Mark Canha: Despite a challenging May, Canha maintains an OPS above the .750 mark and has hit more home runs that the deity Spencer Torkelson. As the team’s no. 3 RBI produced and leader in OBP, Canha’s performance justifies the trade, especially considering Detroit only surrendered a pitching prospect with a career ERA above 5.00.

Gregory Soto to Philadelphia

  • The Return: Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands

    • Nick Maton: Unfortunately, Maton struggled in a Tigers uniform.

    • Matt Vierling: Posting solid numbers (.294/.324/.503, .827 OPS) and playing multiple positions, Vierling’s future role could be as the Tigers’ utility man after the 2024 season. Currently, Vierling is also a possible candidate to be the Tigers All-Star representative.

    • Donny Sands: Released by the Toledo Mud Hens in 2024.

  • Despite Soto being a 2x All-Star (albeit as a pity selection for a bad team), his performance in a Phillies uniform has been lackluster (4.91 ERA, 83 ERA+, 5.9 BB/9 in 2024). Harris prioritized acquiring bats (an organization need), and Vierling’s production makes this trade a win for Detroit.

Carlos Guzman to Chicago

  • The Return: Zach McKinstry

    • Zach McKinstry: A Gold Glove Finalist for the utility position in 2023.

In summary, Harris’s trades have had mixed outcomes, but the focus on acquiring offensive talent reflects the Tigers’ strategic priorities.

Scott Harris and His Use of the Waiver Wire

Scott Harris has been making plenty of moves to improve the team’s performance. One of his key strategies is utilizing the waiver wire effectively. Let’s take a closer look at two of his most successful waiver acquisitions and how they’ve impacted the ballclub.

Andy Ibanez

Andy Ibanez has been a valuable addition to the roster. His performance metrics speak for themselves:

  • 2.6 WAR: Ibanez’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) indicates his overall contribution to the team.

  • Left-Handed Dominance: He excels against left-handed pitching, making him a reliable asset in crucial situations.

  • .739 OPS: His OPS of .739 (in his Tigers tenure) demonstrates his offensive prowess.

  • 102 OPS+: An OPS+ of 103 indicates that he’s slightly above average in terms of offensive production.

Wearing the iconic Old English D, Ibanez has quickly become a fan favorite. His consistent performance has bolstered the Tigers’ lineup and provided some much needed stability.

Tyler Holton

Another waiver acquisition by Harris, Tyler Holton had a breakout year in 2023. Although he’s come back down to Earn in 2024, he remains a valuable asset:

  • Positive WAR: Holton continues to contribute positively to the team’s succes, posting a 0.2 WAR in 2024.

  • ERA+: His Adjusted Earned Run Average remains above average (101), indicated effectiveness on the mound.

  • Controlled Pitching: With only 1.5 BB/9, Holton avoids giving away free bases.

Harris’s approach to the waiver wire extends beyond the immediate impact. While some acquisitions may not direct impact the Detroit Tigers, they can serve as trade bait in the future. By raising the floor of the entire organization, Harris is helping ensure that the Tigers can become and remain competitive in near future as well as the long term.

Scott Harris Signings: A Closer Look

Scott Harris has made several signings in an attempt to strengthen the big league ballclub. Let’s dive into the details of some of these signings:

Matthew Boyd (2023)

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$10m + incentives.

  • Stats: 15 starts, 5-5 record with a 5.45 ERA and a 4.35 FIP. His 9.3 K/9 showed promise.

  • Context: Harris’s familiarity with Boyd from their time with the San Francisco Giants as well as his strong return in the Seattle Bullpen at the end of the 2022 season influenced this signing.

  • Outcome: Unfortunately, Boyd underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023, leaving the Tigers without his services.

Michael Lorenzen (2023)

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$8.5m

  • Stats: 18 starts, 3.58 ERA and a career-best 2.3 BB/9 earned Lorenzen an All-Star selection.

  • Trade Move: Harris flipped Lorenzen at the Trade Deadline for Hao-Yu Lee, currently the No. 13 prospect in the Tigers minor league system.

Kenta Maeda (2024-25)

  • Contract Details: 2yr/$24m

  • Stats: Maeda has struggled quite a bit, with a 2-2 record, a 6.25 ERA, and an ERA+ of 66 over 9 starts. His stint on the IL for a “viral illness” earlier this year definitely raised some eyebrows.

  • Verdict: So far, this signing hasn’t lived up to any expectations.

Jack Flaherty (2024)

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$14m

  • Stats: Flaherty boats a 3.46 ERA, a 2.79 FIP, and a 118 ERA+. His 12.0 K/9 are impressive, as well.

  • Record Woes: Despite his performance, Flaherty’s 2-4 record reflects the team’s offensive struggles.

  • Trade Potential: He could be a valuable trade piece at the deadline.

Andrew Chafin

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$4.75m + $6.5m club option for 2025

  • Stats: Currently, posting a 4.58 ERA, a 3.65 FIP, and a strong 10.5 K/9.

  • Struggles: Recent performance issues might affect his trade value, but he remains a lefty specialist option for a contending team in need of an additional bullpen arm.

Shelby Miller

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$3.25m + $4.25m club option for 2025.

  • Stats: With a 3-4 record comes a 4.41 ERA and elevated wlkas (BB/9). His recent IL sting is concerning, however, he has started his rehab assignment with the Toledo Mud Hens.

  • Potential: If he returns to 2023 form, Miller can bolster the bullpen and mentor young pitchers.

Gio Urshela

  • Contract Details: 1yr/$1.5m

  • Stats: With a slash line of .275/.304/.376 he hasn’t been overly impressive in a Tigers uniform. Currently, he’s posting a 0.0 WAR with a below average 93 OPS+.

  • Underwhelming: Among Harris’s signings, Urshela falls short.

Colt Keith

  • Contract Details: 6yr/$28.6m + club options for 2030-32

  • Stats: As a rookie, Keith’s .227/.283/.297 line is a work in progress. The month of May showed much improvement (.343/.388/.493).

  • Future Investment: The long-term deal locks up second base and shows faith in Keith’s potential. The contract also provides Keith with financial stability while remaining team friendly in relation to AAV.

Scott Harris and the Farm System: A Remarkable Turnaround

Scott Harris has orchestrated a remarkable transformation of the team’s farm system. Let’s delve into the details of hoe he achieved this feat.

Ryan Garko’s influence

While many attribute the farm system’s improvement to Ryan Garko (an Al Avila hire), it’s essential to recognize that Garko reports to Harris. Harris, along with Greenberg (General Manager), actively select the players who populate the minor league rosters. Their strategic decisions have ben instrumental in elevating the Tigers’ prospects.

Harris’s Tenure: Drafts and Acquisitions

With one draft and two seasons/off seasons under his belt, Harris has wasted no time in reshaping the organization. Already, 12 of his prospects have cracked the Top-30 list for the Tigers. Let’s break down the origins of these promising players:

  • Draft Gems

    • Clark, McGonigle, Wilson, Anderson, Hamm, and Rucker: These homegrown talents emerged from the draft. Their development underscores Harris’s commitment to nurturing talent from within; the building of a foundation.

  • Trades and Signings:

    • Malloy, Lee, Leonard, Jiminez, Dickerson, Miranda: Harris’s shrewd moves in the trade market and free agency bolstered the farm system. These acquisitions bring depth and potential impact to the Tigers’ pipeline.

Raising the floor

Harris’s efforts have significantly raised the floor of the entire organization. With a wealth of prospects, he now possess valuable trade assets. As the trade deadline approaches and the off season looms, Harris can explore blockbuster deals to further strengthen the Tigers’ future.

The Detroit Tigers’ farm system, once languishing, now stands as a beacon of hope. Scott Harris’s vision and strategic moves have set the stage for possible sustained success.

rebuildling the rebuild: scott harris’s impact on the detroit tigers

When Scott Harris stepped into the role of President of Baseball Operations for the Detroit Tigers, he inherited a franchise that had weathered it’s share of struggles. The remnants of Al Avila’s tenure as general manager were evident - a system in disarray, missed opportunities, and a fan base yearning for a resurgence. Let’s explore how Harris has turned the tide and set the Tigers on a path toward success.

Al Avila’s rebuild 1.0

  • J.D. Martinez Trade: Avila’s rebuild began with the J.D> Martinez trade before the 2017 deadline. While this move signaled a shift toward youth and prospects, the subsequent years were marked by multiple questionable decisions.

  • Holding on Too Long: Avila often clung to players until their contracts were on the verge of expiration, missing multiple prime trade opportunities. The result? A lack of long-term results.

  • Overvaluing Players: Michael Fulmer epitomized this tendency. Avila’s reluctance to trade him at his peak value hindered the team’s progress.

  • Draft Struggles: Beyond the first round, Avila’s drafting prowess waned, leaving gaps in the minor league system.

  • Ineptitude Across the Board: From trades to contracts to player development, Avila’s front office faced challenges on all fronts.

  • Broken Promises: Tigers fans were disappointed when Avila claimed the team was no longer rebuilding before the 2021 trade deadline.

Scott Harri’s overhaul

  • From the Ground Up: Harris and his front office embarked on a comprehensive overhaul. With one draft and two off seasons, they’ve started to reshape the organization.

  • Bolstering the Farm System: Harris’s strategic moves elevated the Tigers’ farm system to a No. 5 ranking per MLB Pipeline. Prospects like Clark, McGonigle, and others are beginning to emerge as possible cornerstones.

  • Trade Assets: The foundation laid by Harris allows for potential blockbuster trades. MLB-caliber players and near-ready prospects are now within reach.

  • Free Agent Pursuits: Armed with a solid base, the Tigers can attract free agents and sign them to multi-year contracts. The goal? Building a contender in Detroit once again.

Scott Harri’s impact extends beyond the diamond. He’s rebuilding more than just a team; he’s restoring hope and isgniting a new era of Tigers baseball.