Alex Faedo had a rollercoaster 2023 season. Let’s break down his performance and explore whether the Tigers would benefit by moving him to the bullpen.
2023 Season: Ups and Downs
ERA Improvement:
Faedo managed to drop his ERA to 4.45 in 2023, a significant improvement from the 5.53 ERA he posted in 2022.
His WHIP also saw significant improvement, dropping to 1.05 from the less impressive 1.64 the previous season.
Both of these numbers indicate progress, however, there is more to consider.
HardHit% and Walk Rate:
Faedo found himself in the 83rd percentile in HardHit%, indicating that he wasn’t hit overly hard during his 15 appearances (12 starts) of the 2022 season.
His HardHit rate was only 33.9%, slightly better than the MLB average 36.3%.
Faedo was also above average when it came to walking opposing batters, posting a 7.6% walk rate (62nd percentile) compared to the MLB average of 8.4%.
Areas of Concern:
Faedo faces a couple of major issues:
Groundballs: Simply put, he doesn’t induced enough groundballs. Managing only 36.1% groundballs in 2023; a number that was significantly less than the MLB average (44.6%).
Swing-and-Miss: He didn’t have the swing-and-miss type stuff you’d expect from a guy who posted a Whiff% of 41.3 with his slider in 2023.
Low ranking Chase% of 28.2% (41st percentile) and Whiff% of 23.5 (30th percentile) indicate that he was not fooling opposing hitters.
Consequently, his K% was also low at 22.1%; good for the 39th percentile per Baseball Savant.
Opposing Lineups: Faedo struggles to work his way through an opposing lineup a second and third time.
The first time through an opposing lineup in 2023 Faedo held opposing hitters to a slash line of .198/.241/.386 (.627 OPS) while surrendering only 9 runs over 108 plate appearances.
The second and third time through an opposing lineup he didn’t fare as well:
Second time through: Opposing hitter slashed .234/.294/.511 (.805 OPS), surrendering 18 runs over 102 plate appearences.
Third time through: Statistically hitters were worse slashing .185/.313/.333 (.646 OPS), however, he was surrendering runs at a higher rate allowing 6 runs in just 32 plate appearances.
Pitch Arsenal:
Faedo relies on a 3-pitch arsenal:
Four Seam Fastball: 48.5% usage
Slider: 38.1% usage
Changeup: 13.3% usage
This limited repertoire might be a contributing factor to some of the above-mentioned struggles.
The Case for the Bullpen
Spring Training 2024
Faedo has shown promising signs:
He has seen an uptick in his fastball velocity, consistently hitting 95-97 MPH compared to an average of 92.9 MPH in 2023.
His fastball currently boasts an extremely high Whiff%
Over his last 3 Spring Training appearances, he has induced 9 whiffs on 20 fastballs, resulting in an impressive 45% Whiff Rate. Compare this to the meager 12.4% Whiff Rate on his fastball in 2023.
Legitimate Swing and Miss Stuff
This new found Whiff Rate of 45% may not be sustainable throughout an entire season, however, an increase of 10-15% from 2023 will help to give Faedo legitimate swing-and-miss capabilities.
Changeup Adjustments
Faedo has made changes to his changeup grip.
His 2023 grip was causing a multitude of blister and nail issues on his throwing hand.
The new 2024 Grip has alleviated those problems.
Additionally, the new grip generates less spin, a lower velocity, and a larger vertical drop.
Pitch Sequencing
Faedo can utilize a fastball/slider combination against right-handed hitters:
His uptick in fastball velocity (95-97 MPH) combined with his slider (82-83 MPH) makes the slider a much more devasting pitch.
A few well-placed changeups will keep righties on their toes.
Faedo can utilize a fastball/changeup combination against left-handed hitters:
The speed differential remains effective, with the changeup coming in around 84 MPH.
He will also be able to mix in a backdoor slider occasionally to keep lefties off balance.
The Bullpen Role
With the uptick in fastball velocity, a devasting slider and a new changeup Faedo would be a valuable asset in high-leverage situations.
If needed, he could also function as a multi-inning reliever due to his starting history.
The Tigers’ Dilemma
While the case to move Faedo to the bullpen seems like a slam dunk, the Detroit Tigers remain indecisive when it comes to the young pitcher. They haven’t committed to keeping him as a starter or converting him into a relief pitcher. As we look ahead to the start of the 2024 season, my prediction (because of the organization indecisiveness) is that Faedo does not break camp with the Detroit Tigers and will find himself in the Toledo Mud Hens starting rotation.