Kerry Carpenter, a rising star for the Detroit Tigers, had a strong 2023 season that caught the attention of many fans and baseball analysts alike. With an impressive performance at the plate and slightly below average defensive capabilities Carpenter has set the stage for his next steps towards becoming an everyday player for AJ Hinch and the Detroit Tigers. Let’s break down what went well in 2023 and what areas Carpenter can improve upon in 2024.
The 2023 Season Highlights
Offensive Prowess
Carpenter posted a slash line of .273/.340/.471 showcasing his ability to make solid contact and drive the ball. His OPS of .811 and OPS+ of 120 indicate an above average offensive production. With 20 home runs and 64 RBIS, he proved to be a valuable bat in the middle of the lineup.
Advanced Metrics
With an fWAR of 2.2 and wRC+ of 121, his offensive impact is further validated. Carpenter consistently contributed to run production providing stability for AJ Hinch at the cleanup slot.
Areas of Improvement
Sustaining Power
Carpenter cannot afford to lose his power. Posting a mere .621 OPS in September 2023 raised a lot of concerns. With no home runs and only six extra base hits, September was far from ideal.
Plate Discipline
To thrive, Carpenter will need to address his discipline at the plate. His 33.4% Chase Rate (21st percentile per Baseball Savant) indicates a tendency to swing at pitches outside of the zone; lowering this rate will lead to better at-bats.
Strikeout-to Walk Ratio
After posting a K% of 25.1 in 2023, Carpenter should look to improve upon this. Simultaneously, he should also aim to increase his BB% (7.0). Showing more patience within his approach will benefit his overall performance.
Handling Specific Pitches
Carpenter must learn to spit on pitches down and in as well as down and away; specifically, sliders at his back foot and changeups falling away from the plate. Nearly 43% of his strikeouts in 2023 came on these pitch locations.
Left-Handed Pitchers
Being better than a natural platoon hitter is ideal; posting a .235 batting average against lefties falls short of this goal. Additionally, Carpenter needs to display more power against lefties. In 2023, he managed only two extra base hits (both home runs) against left-handed pitching.
Defensive Improvements
Despite his strong arm and above average sprint speeds, Carpenter’s outfield defensive range ranks in the 22nd percentile (per Savant). His -0.6 dWAR (Baseball-Reference), -1 DRS, and -3 OAA (FanGraphs) highlight areas of growth. The 2023 defensive values reinforce the need for improvement:
Positional Value: -6.6
Overall Defensive Value: -5.5
The Path Forward
Manager AJ Hinch’s confidence and constant manipulation of the lineup will play a crucial role in Carpenter’s development during the 2024 season. With dedication and targeted improvements, Kerry Carpenter can transition from a platoon type player to an everyday player for the Detroit Tigers. Keep an eye on this rising star this season.