Left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal made quite the impact upon his return during the second half of the 2023 season. Despite his time in the rotation being a mere 15 starts it was nothing short of spectacular, leaving fans and analysts alike buzzing with excitement. Let’s breakdown his performance and explore what lies ahead for the budding star.
The Stats that Matter
Skubal’s numbers tell a very compelling story. Here’s a quick breakdown of his key statistics from the 2023 season:
ERA: 2.80
WHIP: 0.90
fWAR: 3.3
ERA+: 158
But it wasn’t just the basic stats that made Skubal stand out. His Baseball Savant page reveals an even deeper layer of dominance:
Pitching Prowess
Skubal found himself in the 85th percentile, or better, in several crucial categories:
Value Metrics:
Pitching Run Value: 86th Percentile
Fastball Run Value: 92nd Percentile
Offspeed Run Value: 92nd Percentile
Pitch-Specific Metrics:
xERA: 100th Percentile
xBA: 94th Percentile
Chase%: 91st Percentile
Whiff%: 85th Percentile
K%: 96th Percentile
BB%: 96th Percentile
Barrel%: 94th Percentile
GB%: 87th Percentile
Unlocking Success
Despite having a below average HardHit% (getting hit hard) in the 41st percentile, Skubal was able to curtail the total number of runs surrendered. His 4-seam fastball was a standout, boasting the highest run value of any of his pitches at +10. Additionally, his changeup proved to be of value in relation to PutAway% (31.3) and Whiff% (50.6).
Cy Young Contender?
FanDuel has placed Skubal’s odds of winning the American League Cy Young award at +1600 (8th best); a well-deserved honor after his 2023 performance. There are plenty of reports from Spring Training that suggest players are buying into the hype surrounding Skubal and his Cy Young odds. And why not? Skubal has been reported to be touching 100 MPH with his fastball on a consistent during bullpen session and live BP session.
The Next Steps
To ascend to true dominance, Skubal will need to focus on one key area: his breaking ball. In 2023, his Breaking Run Value was near the bottom of the league in the 14th percentile. His slider, once a weapon, saw a decline in Run Value down to -4. But there’s hope – back in 2021, that same slider had a Run Value of +7 paired with a Whiff% of 29.1 and K% of 33.3. Skubal’s offseason work seems to be aiming to recapture that success.
Fellow Tigers starter Jack Flaherty aptly put it, “It’s going to be fun to see what he can do.” Indeed, the baseball world, Detroit Tiger fans specifically, eagerly await the next chapter of Tarik Skubal’s career – a chapter that could redefine dominance on the mound and bring a Cy Young Award back to the City of Detroit.