With the 2021 All Star break upon us I thought it would be fun to go back and revisit the First Rotation “Hot Takes” post I made back in April and see how well those takes have aged.
Akil Baddoo is LEGIT: He became the first Detroit Tigers to homer in his first two career games, one of which was a Grand Slam and then became the youngest player since Travis Fryman to have a walk-off hit for the franchise. He currently leads the team in Homeruns (2), RBI (6) and Stolen Bases (1) through the first rotation of the pitching staff; mind you he has only played in three of the five games Detroit has played.
Update: The man continues to hit, currently slashing .271/.351/.462 on the season. Baddoo I currently boasting an OPS of .813 nearly 100 points higher than the league average of .718. Despite his struggles against left-handed pitchers (.122 BA) manager AJ Hinch continues to give him at-bats and has even slotted him into the leadoff spot in the batting order. Baddoo also leads the league in triples (4) and walks 11.2% of the time and has a WAR of 1.1. At this rate Akil needs to remain in the lineup and get as many chances as he can.
Skubal and Mize are here to stay: Both are budding stars. Skubal looked as though he was going to earn his first win of 2021 in his first start, however, it was squandered by the bullpen. Mize only lasted 4 innings, mostly due to his pitch count, but only gave up one run while striking out four. Skubal showed great poise with his fastball toying with hitters by changing up speed and mixing in his secondary pitches well. Mize still showed some struggles with his command but was much better than his early Spring Training appearances. Barring any sort of injury both will remain in the rotation for the year.
Update: Both Skubal and Mize’s records of 5-8 and 5-5, respectively, are not indicative of their growth thus far. Skubal continues to strikeout batters at a high rate, 10.7 K/9, collecting 105 over the course of 88.2 innings pitched. He has also posted a quality start in 5 of his last 8 starts. Skubal’s one big issue is that he does not continuously attack hitters when he is ahead in the count. Often, when ahead, Skubal will nibble around the corners instead of going after the hitter which in turn drives up the pitch count and gets him in trouble when he makes a mistake. Manager AJ Hinch has recently started to limit the innings of Casey Mize, having already done so earlier this season with Skubal. Despite the limitation Mize continues to deliver effective outings and we have seen a tremendous improvement with his command and a drop in his walk rate. It looks as though Hinch and the Detroit Tigers are looking to keep these two young arms on the roster for the duration of the 2021 season without having to shut them down due to innings limits.
2020 Jeimer Candelario was the real deal: The Candyman continues to rake at the plate. He has already collected six hits through his first five games. He is using all parts of the field and taking several pitches the other way showing his evolution at the plate. It appears that the Candelario Detroit thought they were getting when trading for him has arrived.
Update: The Candyman also continues to hit, currently with 80 hits on the season (good for 2nd on the team behind Jonathan Schoop). Thus far, he has collected 25 extra base hits including 20 doubles and 5 homeruns; we’ve yet to seem him break out the wheels to get a triple. Jeimer is currently hitting .303 against lefties well above his career .286 averages against. Candy has also continued to show patience at the collecting 37 walks, also good for second on the team. Of his 305 total at-bats he has been even or ahead in the count in 191 or 63% of the time, this approach likely has attributed to his continued success at the plate.
The catcher position is disappointing all around: Wilson Ramos is hitting .214 and Grayson Greiner .167 and have combined for 10 strikeouts in 14 at-bats. While Ramos has been behind the plate, he has given up one passed ball and pitchers have thrown four wild pitches. Statistical data shows the defense has not been a problem behind the plate, however, it feels as though the pitching staff is still yet to get comfortable with either of the catchers behind the plate.
Turnbull and Haase celebrate the No Hitter
Update: Ramos and Greiner are no longer with the big club, and it is a good thing. Once Eric Haase and Jake Rogers joined the team it seemed to spark the pitching staff, including Spencer Turnbull’s no hitter against Seattle. The pitching staff has posted a 4.86 ERA with Haase behind the dish and 4.20 with Rogers in comparison to the 5.06 and 5.45 ERAs posted by Wilson and Greiner, respectively. Not only have these two helped lower the overall team ERA they have also slowed down the running game throwing out 8 of 13 would be base stealers for a 61.5% caught stealing versus the 4 of 19 (21%) prior. Not only have they both helped defensively they have also provided an injection of offensive pop combining for 19 homeruns, 13 of which are for Haase which is good for second on the team.
Robbie Grossman is an on base machine: Grossman currently boasts an OBP of .524 thanks to his 9 base on balls through five games. It appears Grossman’s patience at the plate has had a trickle-down effect to some degree, the Tigers have already collected 20 base on balls as a team.
Update: To date Grossman has walked 60 total times, good for second in the MLB. His OBP currently sits at .354 which is 38 points higher than league average of .316 (team). Grossman’s approach still seems to show a trickle-down effect throughout the lineup. The Tigers currently have an OBP of .307 as a team which his up from .303 in 2020 and .294 in 2019.
Michael Fulmer as found his new home: He has been strong out of the pen thus far for the Tigers. Fulmer has been called on twice and thrown three innings allowing one run while strikeout out five and holding opponents to a .182 batting average.
Update: Unfortunately, Fulmer finds himself on the 10-day IL with a back injury. However, before landing on the injured list Fulmer has posted a 3-2 record as a reliever collecting 6 saves along the way. In 27.1 innings of relief work Fulmer had a K/9 of 11.5, however, he had surrendered 5 homeruns as well. He seemed to have found his groove before the injury and was even touching the high 90s with his fastball like his Rookie season. Hopefully, his return will help to stabilize this struggling bullpen.
The remainder of the bullpen is scary: The ERAs of the bullpen pitchers are astronomically high, albeit we are only five games deep. Buck Farmer (16.88 ERA) has allowed five earned runs in 2.2 innings, Derek Holland (15.43 ERA) has allowed four earned runs in 2.1 innings, Daniel Norris (12.00 ERA) has allowed four earned runs in 3.0 innings and these are our veteran arms coming out of the pen.
Soto was named the Tigers 2021 All Star representative
Update: There have only been a few bright spots within the Tigers bullpen this season; Funkhouser, Cisnero and Soto (and some would argue that Soto should not be there because of his erraticness). There are currently six pitchers posting an ERA north of 5.0 in the pen: Erasmo Ramirez (5.40), Daniel Norris (6.89), Bryan Garcia (7.32), Buck Farmer (8.25), Derek Holland (10.06 and Ian Krol (13.50). Unfortunately, these numbers from our relievers have combined for 16 losses out of the pen this season, or 31% of the team’s losses. Despite the strides forward we have seen from some of the starting staff and the bright spots, this team is still lacking reliable arms to bridge the gap between the starters and the back end of the pen.
Manager AJ Hinch discusses the frustrations of te team in late April
Hinch will make this team a winner: It will not happen this year, but Hinch seems to know when to press the buttons and how to press them the right way. His foresight alone in yesterday’s game when he removed Miggy from the game to put in Harold Castro knowing that Castro would then be the player put on second base to start extra innings, he is playing to win. While this team does not have a shot to contend in 2021, they are scrappy, it is possible they may spoil some contenders seasons late in the year.
Update: After a rough 8-19 start in April Hinch helped lead this team to back-to-back winning months in May and June (14-13 in each). Since the 19-loss April the Tigers have played .500 ball (32-32 record) propelling themselves to 3rd place in the division behind the White Sox and Indians. They are still a scrappy team as well, posting a 6-4 record in extra inning games and a 13-11 record in 1-run games thus far. Behind his management and manipulation of the starting lineup Hinch has helped this team go from being a -58 run differential in April to -21 over the course of May/June/July. Despite still being a negative run differential team there have been strides forward offensively and I still believe the scrappiness will lend to spoil a contender or two’s postseason hopes this season.